Study Projects Dramatic Increase in Alzheimer's Disease Cases in Coming Years

The number of people with Alzheimer's disease will increase dramatically in the coming years unless a way can be found to slow or prevent it, according to a study reported in the August issue of the Archives of Neurology.

If nothing is done, the study predicts increases in the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease by 27 percent by 2020, 70 percent by 2030 and 300 percent by 2050 when some 13.2 million older Americans are expected to have Alzheimer's disease.

Funded by the Alzheimer's Association and the National Institute on Aging, the study evaluated the incidence of Alzheimer's in a biracial urban community, and applied the findings to U.S. Census data and National Center for Health Statistics mortality data to estimate prevalence in the U.S. population. Currently, 4.5 million Americans are estimated to have Alzheimer's disease.

The reason for the expected increase, according to study, is the rapid growth of those 85 years and older and a decline in the death rate among persons over age 65 to about half the current rate by 2050. By 2030 nearly half the individuals with Alzheimer's are expected to be 85 years and older.

"These numbers validate the current thinking that we must do what we can as early as possible in the disease process, prior to advanced age, if we are to head off these very high rates of AD in the future," said lead researcher Dr. Denis Evans, of Rush-Presbyterian-St. Luke's Medical Center in Chicago.

Other sources: National Institute on Aging, Alzheimer's Association