Even with expected major breakthroughs, researchers at the University of North Carolina School of Medicine estimate 7.9 to 12.95 million Americans will suffer from Alzheimer's disease by the year 2050, doublingcurrent figures.

The study, an attempt to assign some numbers to what can be expected in the Alzheimer's area, makes even more clear the need tof r development of new approaches to care, according to the researchers.

"It occurred to us that people have no guidance to project what will happen in the future regarding Alzheimer's," said Dr. Philip D. Sloane, lead author and Elizabeth and Oscar Goodwin Distinguished Professor of Family Medicine in the UNC School of Medicine.

Their study was modeled around historical data for congestive heart failure and Parkinson's disease. Both diseases, which primarily affect older populations, have seen remarkable advances in treatments over the past 50 years.

Using statistical projections, the researchers developed three scenarios -- delayed disease onset, reduced rate of progression, and a combination of the two. Projections were based on one or more breakthroughs occurring by 2010.

Results of their research, published in the Annual Review of Public Health, showed that a successful method of delaying disease onset "could reduce the overall projected number of people with AD by 38 percent in 2050, with 33 percent of those patients having a mild form of the disease, and 67 percent having moderate to severe Alzheimer's.

If disease progression was successfully slowed by 2010, 10.33 million elderly would have the disease by 2050 -- virtually the same number as would occur without treatment improvement"but the preponderance of persons with the disease will be mild cases (59 percent)," according to the report.

"The net effect would be to increase the burden on families by requiring additional years of care-giving," said Dr. Sheryl Zimmerman, associate professor of social work and public health and co-director of the Program on Aging, Disability and Long-Term Care of the Sheps Center.

She went on to say that entirely new methods of care -- including Alzheimer's care outpatient services, expanded dementia day programs and respite care services for caregivers -- would need to be implemented.

"The most promising model is one that involves both delayed onset and retarded disease progression," Sloane and his colleagues wrote.
The model would result largely in the growth of outpatient services, they said, while long-term care would grow modestly.

Sloane said this means health systems must start thinking ahead, especially as drugs begin to make it through clinical trials, potentially changing the health service needs of Alzheimer's patients.

"The lesson we learn from all this is that the disease is not going to go away if we have significant treatment advances," he concluded.

Other Sources: University of North Carolina School of Medicine